Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure despite having the 1W MA200 holding the crash last week. Having long lost its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which confirmed the Bear Cycle, we are now approaching its 2nd Phase, which is the bottoming process.
This doesn't mean that the bottom is here but more like that the market is entering a Phase where it will gradually attempt to lead us to the bottom of the 4-year Cycle, which based on it should be around September - October 2026.
Having a look at the past three Bear Cycles and drawing their Phase 2 fractals after the 0.5 Fibonacci level, that led to their bottom, we can see that the structure is quite familiar. Not identical, but similar. All principles are the same and there is a high correlation with the 2022 Bear Cycle in particular.
Even though we haven't yet technically reached the middle (0.5 Fib) of this Bear Cycle, according to that fractal, BTC should start making a series of Lower Lows gradually, that can potentially lead to as low as $40000. That could be the Bear Cycle bottom.
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