polymatket

💥 BREAKING: The odds of another US government shutdown in 3 days surge to a new high of 75%, per Polymarket. $ACT

Government shutdowns are becoming a bi-weekly event. $KERNEL $ZEC

#USGovernmentShutdown#Polymatket #USRetailSalesMissForecast

"Having accurately identified the trend, yet losing all the money is a bitter lesson I'm truly fed up with.

I used to think that a certain narrative would become popular, and I had to grit my teeth and jump into the fray, only to find that while the traffic did indeed come, the pool was withdrawn, or the speculator had already run away.

Polymarket and Kaito are set to launch an attention market yesterday, which essentially separates the attention from the coin price and sells it independently. This means Polymarket provides the market, and Kaito's AI acts as the referee, quantifying all network discussion data.

As long as you believe this matter can get hot and the topic can explode, just go long on its public opinion index. This might be the true literal meaning of traffic monetization.

However, I'm also wondering, since AI has become the only settlement standard, is it time for the top offensive and defensive battle between traffic-boosting studios and anti-traffic manipulation algorithms?

Do people feel this method is fairer, or does it leave scientists with a new backdoor?

#Polymatket #KAITO $BTC

$COLLECT experienced a surge of over 30% in a single day, followed by stagnation and deep imbalance near the previous high resistance area (0.076-0.079), which is a typical signal of bullish momentum exhaustion.
🎯 Direction: Flat
Market Analysis: In the 4H timeframe, three consecutive candles recorded long upper shadows, and the latest buying ratio is only 0.49, indicating a sharp decline in the willingness to chase prices. Although the price stands above EMA20 (0.0644), it is far from the moving average, indicating a technical pullback demand.
Hard Logic: Key data points to risk. 1) The funding rate reaches 0.0688%, which is in the extremely greedy zone, and the cost of bullish positions is very high. 2) Deep imbalance of -3.93%, with the thickness of the sell wall (Asks) significantly greater than the buy wall (Bids), resulting in heavy selling pressure above. 3) RSI (63.2) is not overbought, but combined with the high funding rate after the surge and deep imbalance, it represents a typical 'buy the rumor, sell the news' structure. 4) Open interest (OI) is stable rather than increasing, suggesting that the rise is driven by spot trading rather than continuous inflow of major funds, leading to doubts about sustainability.
Trading Plan: The current price level (~0.072) does not meet the conditions for a high win-rate risk-reward ratio for going long. Shorting conditions are also not satisfied due to the lack of OI decline + RSI divergence resonance. The best strategy is to wait for the price to pull back to key support (previous breakout zone 0.061-0.065) and observe the absorption of buying, or to wait for a clear bearish structure to emerge at high levels (such as OI decline + sustained high rates) before considering a right-side short.

Trade here 👇$COLLECT
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#Polymatket #KAITO #BTC走势分析
@币安广场

$ETH

$BTC is in a weak oscillation below the EMA20, with price action showing disordered consolidation after a decline, lacking a clear direction.
🎯 Direction: No Position
Market Analysis: Price is suppressed by EMA20 (~69560) at the 4H level, with RSI at 45 in a neutral weak area, not entering oversold territory. Key data contradictions: Funding rate slightly negative (-0.0001%) and OI stable, suggesting bears are not in control, but the buy/sell ratio (0.47-0.52) remains below 1, indicating active selling pressure. Deep imbalance reaches 96.42%, but buy orders are concentrated below the current price, resembling passive absorption rather than active offense.
Logic Hard Core: The current price (~68975) is at the midpoint of the recent oscillation range, with strong resistance above at EMA20 and the psychological level of 70000, and support below at the previous low of 67883. The price has not touched any key Fibonacci levels (like 0.382 or 0.5) or previous highs that convert to support. ATR reaches 1421, showing huge volatility, but currently undergoing a volume contraction, belonging to a chaotic phase of long and short battles.
Trading Plan: Refuse to open positions at the mid-price level. To go long, wait for price to pull back and stabilize in the demand zone of 67883-68322 (previous low + order block), accompanied by a buy ratio rising to above 0.55. To go short, the price needs to rebound to the supply zone of 69560-70000 and face resistance, with a decline in OI + positive funding rate. Currently, neither condition is met, with insufficient win rate; the best strategy is to stay out of the market and wait for direction.

Trade here 👇 $BTC
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#Polymatket #KAITO #BTC
@币安广场
$ETH

LATEST: ⚡ POLYMARKET PARTNERS WITH CIRCLE, MOVES TO NATIVE USDC
Polymarket is partnering with Circle to migrate from bridged USDC.e to native USDC on Polygon over the coming months. $ETH
The move eliminates cross-chain bridge reliance, strengthening security, reliability, and settlement efficiency across Polymarket’s infrastructure.$BTC
Another step toward institutional-grade, stablecoin-native prediction markets.$BNB
#Polymatket #MarketCorrection #WhenWillBTCRebound

🔮 Polymarket: A New Gem or "Bets on Steroids"?

While the traditional crypto market isn't exactly generating profits, Polymarket is bucking the trend. It's not just betting; it's a prediction market where people trade information, not tokens.

What's the gist? 🧠
You buy "shares" on the outcome of any event: from "Who will win the election?" to "What will BTC price be in March?" The share price fluctuates between 0 and $1 (with a 0% to 100% probability).

Get the outcome right—you get $1 for each share.

Get it wrong—you get zero.

Why is this the Alpha trend now?
🔥 Liquidity is flooding in, and billionaires and CEOs of tier-one exchanges are talking about the platform. It's no longer just a casino, but a hedging and trading tool.

💸 How to make money here (3 ways):

• News trading: No need to wait for the event to end! Bought "Yes" for $0.30 → good news comes out → the price rises to $0.60 → sell and lock in 2x.

• Arbitrage and spread trading: Works like scalping. You place limit orders (buy low, sell high) and pocket the difference on volatility.

• Airdrop hunting: The platform is decentralized, there's no token yet. Activity (trading volume + liquidity) could be the criterion for a big airdrop in the future 👀

Bottom line: This is the perfect place for those who can analyze the information field faster than the crowd.

#Polymatket

JUST IN: 🛒💙 POLYMARKET OPENS NYC’S FIRST FREE GROCERY STORE
Polymarket announced it will open New York City’s first free grocery store and donate $1 MILLION to Food Bank For NYC.$SYN
WHY IT MATTERS:
• Direct impact on food insecurity
• High-profile crypto firm moving beyond narratives into action $BIFI
• Bridges on-chain success with real-world relief $ZKP BOTTOM LINE:
This isn’t marketing fluff.
It’s tangible help — funded by prediction markets.
#Polymatket #US #KevinWarshNominationBullOrBear

Trading volume on Polymarket hit a new all-time high in October, surpassing the previous record set during the U.S. presidential election.

It seems that lately, people are more excited about betting than investing.
#polygon #FOMCWatch #Polymatket

The head prediction platform polymarket is also going to issue coins. Registration starts now. I think it can be done. For the time being, just fill in a phone number. The specific details will be known later. I just filled in as number 88882. Please fill in a US phone number
#Polymatket

#Polymatket #WachTrading
🔥 SHOCK ON POLYMARKET: every 4th bet is FAKE!

Researchers from Columbia University have exposed massive wash trading on the largest crypto betting platform. According to their data:

❌ 25% of ALL transactions in 3 years are imitation
❌ 45% in sports
❌ 17% in elections (including the US-2024)

How does it work?
The same user buys and sells to himself at lightning speed through several anonymous wallets. Why does the platform allow this?

💸 0% commissions
🔓 Complete anonymity + stablecoins
💎 Motivation — to pump up volumes before the announced drop of its own token POLY
14% of 1.26 million wallets are suspected of being fraudulent. Peaks of fake activity do not coincide with news about events, but with rumors about the token…
Polymarket just raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, and Bloomberg called them a “collective barometer of truth.”

It turns out that someone was twisting the barometer’s hands 🤡

🚨 INSIDER BETS EXPOSED ON POLYMARKET

On-chain sleuth LookOnChain flagged 3 Polymarket wallets that placed bets on Nicolás Maduro being out of office just hours before his arrest — netting $630,484 in profit.$XRP

🕒 Suspicious timing
• Bets placed shortly before the arrest
• Positions laser-focused on Maduro outcomes
• Wallets were pre-funded in advance

🧠 Why this matters
The wallets showed no broad market activity — only Maduro-related contracts, raising serious insider information concerns.$LINK

⚖️ Big implications
If proven, this could:
• Trigger regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets
• Force tighter KYC / surveillance on Polymarket
• Reignite debates around information asymmetry in on-chain betting

📌 Bigger picture$PEPE
Prediction markets price truth faster than news —
but when inside knowledge enters the game, market integrity is at risk.

👀 All eyes now on Polymarket’s response.
#Binanceholdermmt #Polymatket #shiba⚡

🚨 JUST IN: ⚽ Polymarket partners with Major League Soccer
Polymarket has signed an exclusive, multi-year licensing deal with Major League Soccer (MLS), the largest soccer league in the U.S. $BTC
KEY DETAILS:
• Partner: Major League Soccer (MLS)
• Deal: Exclusive, multi-year licensing agreement $ETH
• Access: Official MLS prediction markets on Polymarket $BNB
WHY IT MATTERS:
• Brings mainstream U.S. sports into on-chain prediction markets
• Signals growing institutional acceptance of prediction platforms
• Expands Polymarket’s reach beyond politics into sports betting-adjacent use cases
BOTTOM LINE:
Prediction Markets Are Going Mainstream.
With MLS Onboard, Polymarket Just Scored Its Biggest Sports Win Yet.#mls #Polymatket #Mag7Earnings

🚫 UKRAINE BANS POLYMARKET

$BNB Ukraine has blocked access to Polymarket and similar prediction platforms, labeling them unlicensed gambling operators under domestic law.

The move signals a harder stance on on-chain betting markets, even as they gain traction globally for forecasting politics, markets, and macro events.

📌 Why this matters:$SOL
This reinforces the regulatory gray zone around prediction markets. While seen elsewhere as “information markets,” some governments are treating them squarely as gambling — raising geo-blocking, compliance, and access risks for platforms and users worldwide.$LINK

⚠️ Expect more countries to pick sides.
#Polymatket #ukraine #USChinaDeal

Polymarket Introduces 15-Minute Crypto Prediction Markets Backed by Chainlink

Polymarket has just launched a new feature that’s catching attention across the crypto world — 15-minute “Price Up/Down” prediction markets. Supported by Chainlink’s reliable on-chain data, the platform lets users predict short-term price movements for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It’s a simple concept: guess whether the price will rise or fall within 15 minutes. This move blends speed, transparency, and fun into crypto speculation. While it’s still in early stages, the feature shows how prediction markets are evolving beyond traditional trading, offering users a more dynamic way to engage with real-time crypto price action.
#Polymatket #CryptoMarket4T #Ripple1BXRPReserve #PowellRemarks #US-EUTradeAgreement
$BTC $ETH $PAXG

🚨 MARKET ALERT 🇺🇸 Polymarket traders are currently pricing a 52% likelihood that the government shutdown in the United States will end in the coming week! ⏰ q Due to the possibility of a spike in risk appetite in both equities and cryptocurrency if a deal is completed, investors are extremely focused. 📈🔥 A resolution is exactly what the markets have been waiting for: money will start to flow again, federal spending will begin, and confidence will return. 💵⚡ Keep an eye on the news since the relief rally might happen quickly if Washington achieves a deal. 🚀 Remain alert and prepared. #Polymatket #StablecoinLaw $POLYX
$BTC
$SOL

Remember: You are not here to make small money. The most frightening thing is not that you lose money, but that you spend your time in places that won't change your fate.

#暴富神话 #Polymatket
$BTC

If there is stock in hand, I am afraid to go back and buy #Polymatket without lowering the interest rate bp25, to hedge, 2u can protect 150u