goldmansachs

You're asking the wrong question.
"Is the four-year cycle early or late?" That's retail thinking. That's trying to predict the weather instead of reading the wind.
Here's what actually happened yesterday:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $167 million .ARKB led with $68.5M. FBTC added $56.9M. Even IBIT—yes, BlackRock's IBIT—quietly pulled in $26.5M .This is now three consecutive days of inflows. That hasn't happened since January .Total cumulative ETF inflows just crossed $55 billion .
And here's the part nobody is screaming from the rooftops:
Bitcoin is down 40%+ from its all-time high. Yet ETF holders have only sold 6% of their total position .

Let that sink in.
The "Goldman Is Dumping" Narrative is a Trap
I know you saw the headlines. "Goldman cuts Bitcoin ETF exposure by 39%." Scary, right?
Here's what they're not telling you:
That cut happened in Q4 2025. You know, when Bitcoin was trading between $88k and $114k . They took profits. That's what smart money does.
But here's the part the fear-porn articles buried:
Goldman's total crypto portfolio is now $2.36 BILLION—up 15% from the previous quarter .

Let me repeat that: They reduced Bitcoin exposure by 39%... yet their TOTAL crypto holdings INCREASED.
Where did the money go?
First-time XRP ETF position: $152 million First-time Solana ETF position: $108 million Ethereum: Still holding ~$1 billion 
This isn't "de-risking." This is portfolio rebalancing. This is a $2.36 trillion asset manager telling you they believe in the asset class so deeply that they're rotating into new verticals while taking profits on winners.
That's not bearish. That's professional.
The Data That Destroys the "Cycle Is Dead" Panic
Let's look at what ETF holders have actually done during this "catastrophic" 40%+ drawdown:
MetricValueWhat It Tells YouETF holdings at peak (Oct)~1.37M BTCATH, euphoria, everyone feeling like geniusesETF holdings today~1.29M BTCOnly 6% sold Peak IBIT AUM~$100BMainstream adoption at scaleCurrent IBIT AUM~$60BDown 40%... yet still the fastest ETF to EVER hit $60B 
Eric Balchunas, who literally wrote the book on ETFs, said something that should be framed on every trader's wall:
"For now, the ETF boomers have really come through." 
These aren't degens checking charts every 5 minutes. These are 401(k) allocators who treat Bitcoin as 1-2% "hot sauce" in a diversified portfolio. When stocks are up 15% elsewhere, they don't panic-sell their crypto allocation at a loss .
This is why the four-year cycle is breaking. Not because "crypto is dead." Because crypto grew up.
The Volatility Reality Check
Balchunas admitted he got something wrong. He thought ETF adoption would dampen volatility .
He was wrong.
Why? Two factors he didn't fully price in:
1. The OG Supply Overhang
Early adopters—people who bought Bitcoin at $200, $1,000, $10,000—are taking profits at these levels. That's not "selling the bottom." That's generational wealth transfer. And it creates real selling pressure that ETFs can't instantly absorb .
2. 450% in Two Years
Bitcoin ran from ~$25k to ~$126k in 24 months. That's obscene. Even institutional investors need breathers. The fact that we're only down 40% after a 5x move is actually a sign of strength, not weakness .
Balchunas' conclusion: "Volatility is the cost of the returns." 
If you can't handle 40% drawdowns, you don't deserve 500% upswings. That's not crypto—that's math.
The Real Trade: Institutional Sticky Floor
Here's what the data actually says about where we are:
The 200 EMA is at $68,319. We're kissing it right now .
The RSI is 28.46. That's deeply oversold. Has been for days .
ETF holders are sitting on their hands. 94% retention through a 40%+ crash .
This is not the behavior of a market that believes the cycle is over. This is the behavior of a market that believes $60k-$70k is the new institutional accumulation zone.
Think about it:
Goldman is rotating, not exiting.ETF flows just flipped positive for three straight days.The "weak hands" narrative is being applied to the wrong cohort. The weak hands were the 6% who sold. The strong hands are the 94% who held.
The Bottom Line: Stop Trying to Date the Cycle and Start Reading the Flows
The four-year cycle model assumed a specific type of market: retail-dominated, halving-obsessed, all-or-nothing.
That market doesn't exist anymore.
The 2026 market is:
Institutionally dominated: $55B in ETF inflows, 6.39% of total Bitcoin supply now in ETFs Macro-sensitive: Reacting to Fed policy, not just block rewardsStructurally sticky: 94% retention through a 40% crash is unprecedented in crypto history
Your job isn't to predict whether the bottom is in. Your job is to watch what capital is actually doing.
Capital is flowing back into Bitcoin ETFs while retail screams about cycles and halvings.
Capital is rotating into XRP and Solana ETFs because institutions are building diversified crypto books, not flipping coins.
Capital is holding through a 40% drawdown because $1.5 trillion asset managers don't trade on hourly candles.
The four-year cycle isn't "dead" or "early." It's irrelevant. We're playing a different game now—one where the rules are written by ETF flows, 13F filings, and the spread between the 50 and 200 EMA.
BTC TRADE
So here's your assignment:
Stop asking "When moon?"
Start asking "What are ETF flows doing?"
Stop asking "Is the bottom in?"
Start asking "Is the 200 EMA holding?"
Stop asking "Is Goldman bearish?"
Start asking "Where is Goldman rotating TO?"
The answers are in the data. Not the dogma.

⬇️ Are you still trading the 4-year cycle, or have you accepted that the ETF era rewrote the playbook?

💬 I want to hear from the ones who held through $60k. What made you stay?

$NIL $ZRO
#BTC #ETFs #InstitutionalCrypto #GoldManSachs #NotFinancialadvice

Goldman Sachs has made a significant move, disclosing over $2.36 billion in crypto exposure in its Q4 2025 13F filing. This includes $1.1 billion in Bitcoin, $1 billion in Ethereum, $153 million in XRP, and $108 million in Solana. To put this into perspective, these crypto holdings represent about 0.33% of Goldman Sachs' total assets under management, which exceed $1 trillion.
Goldman Sachs' Crypto Holdings:
- Bitcoin: $1.1 billion $BTC
- Ethereum: $1 billion $ETH
- XRP: $153 million $XRP
- Solana: $108 million $SOL
This move signals a shift in Goldman Sachs' stance on cryptocurrency, as it had previously been skeptical about Bitcoin's value. The bank's exposure is primarily through ETFs, which hold Bitcoin on behalf of shareholders and track the asset's price.
Strategy: The holdings are aimed at providing client-driven liquidity and exposure to crypto, with recent adjustments involving a 39.4% reduction in Bitcoin and 27.2% reduction in Ethereum ETFs during Q4 2025, alongside new positions in XRP and Solana.
These holdings reflect a cautious but growing integration of digital assets into traditional banking portfolios, with a focus on ETF-based, regulated products.
Risk Management: The portfolio includes over $600 million in put options, indicating hedging against volatility.
The firm's shift from skepticism to significant investment indicates a strategic embrace of digital assets, driven by client demand.
What do you think about Goldman Sachs' crypto investment strategy? Will other major banks follow suit?
#GoldManSachs #BTC #ETH #SOL #Mfkmalik