etfs

I spent 90+ minutes listening to CZ's first major interview since getting out of prison.

The All-In Podcast dropped it yesterday, and honestly? I wasn't expecting much. I figured it'd be the usual crypto hype, carefully scripted PR answers, maybe some generic "#bitcoin to the moon" takes.
I was wrong.

CZ was... real. Honest. No filter.
And he said some things that completely changed how I'm thinking about this market.

The biggest one?
He thinks 2026 might break the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Not a typical bear year. A continuation.
But that's just one piece. He also opened up about what prison was actually like, how the Trump pardon felt, why he's genuinely happy he doesn't run Binance anymore, and why he believes AI agents are going to become crypto's biggest users.

Let me break down what I picked up the stuff that actually matters.
What I Learned About His Prison Time

First, let's talk about where he's been.
CZ spent 4 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to anti-money laundering violations. The settlement? $4.3 billion. One of the largest in corporate history.
What Prison Was Actually Like
I was curious about this part. What's it like when you go from running a multi-billion dollar exchange to... federal prison?
He was surprisingly open about it.

On the social hierarchy:
"There are levels. Some people have been there 10+ years. You respect seniority."
He talked about how there's a whole social structure inside. You don't just show up and act like you're CZ, crypto billionaire. You're just another inmate.
On the mental side:
"I went in knowing it was finite. 4 months. Some guys don't have a release date. That's a different kind of hell."
This hit me. Knowing you have an end date changes everything. Imagine being in there without knowing when or if you're getting out.

The unexpected part:
"I had time to think. No distractions. No pressure. Just... space."
He actually described prison as mentally clarifying.
Think about it: when you're running Binance, your brain never stops. Emails, crises, decisions 24/7.
Prison? Forced pause.

"I actually got a lot of mental clarity," he said.
I wasn't expecting that take.
The Trump Pardon Question
Then the hosts asked about the pardon.
Trump granted CZ clemency in January 2025, cutting his sentence.

How did it feel?
"Relief. Not celebration. Just... relief."
I appreciated the honesty there. He didn't try to make it some triumphant moment.

The pay-to-play question:
The hosts directly asked: "Was there a deal? Did you pay for this?"
CZ's answer: "Absolutely not."
He said he had zero contact with the Trump administration about it. It came as a surprise.
"People want to create conspiracies. There was no deal. I didn't lobby for it. It happened."

So why did Trump do it?
CZ thinks it's part of a bigger shift in how the U.S. government sees crypto.
"The tide has turned. Crypto isn't the enemy anymore. Regulators are realizing they need to work WITH the industry, not against it."
That part made sense to me. The political winds have definitely changed since 2023.
He's Actually Happy He Doesn't Run Binance Anymore
This was the quote that stuck with me most:
"I am actually grateful that I don't have to run Binance anymore. The mental load is gone."
Wait, what?

This is the guy who built Binance from zero to the largest crypto exchange on the planet.
And he's... relieved to not run it?
Yeah. He is.
His explanation hit different:
"Money is just one thread in a spiderweb. If you pull it too hard, the rest of the web family, health, peace snaps."
That's real.

Running Binance was consuming him. Every waking moment. Every decision. Every crisis.
Now? He's free.
"I'm a normal dude," he said. "You don't need to be super smart to be successful, just consistent and a bit lucky."
I found that refreshing. No ego. No "I'm a genius" flex. Just honesty.
The 2026 Prediction That Got My Attention
Okay, now the market stuff.

How Bitcoin Cycles Usually Work
Historically, Bitcoin follows this pattern:
Year 1: Bull market, new ATH
Year 2: Crash, bear market
Year 3: Bottoming, accumulation
Year 4: Recovery, new ATH
Then repeat.
So:
2021: Peaked at $69K
2022: Crashed to $15.5K
2023: Bottomed around $25K-$30K
2024: Recovery, then new ATH at $126K
2026: ??? (Should be a bear year, right?)
CZ Says: Maybe Not This Time
Here's where it got interesting.
CZ thinks 2026 could break the cycle.
Not a typical bear year. Maybe a continuation.

His reasoning:
1. The ETFs changed everything.
"The ETFs provide a floor. We're not going to see 80% crashes like we used to."
He explained that institutional money doesn't panic. When Bitcoin drops, they buy more.
Retail? We panic sell.
Institutions? They accumulate.

2. Countries are buying Bitcoin now.
El Salvador. Bhutan. Probably others we don't know about yet.
Nation-states don't dump in bear markets. They're long-term holders.

3. Retail hasn't even FOMO'd yet.
"Institutions are in. But retail? They're not euphoric yet. That's still coming."
His point: If retail piles in AFTER institutions have already positioned, the cycle extends longer.
What a Supercycle Would Look Like
Instead of:
2026: Crash to $50K2027: Bottom and recover
Maybe:
2026: Consolidate at $150K2027: Continue to $300K
That's a supercycle.
Do I Buy It?
Honestly? I'm torn.
The ETFs ARE different. We've never had $50+ billion in institutional vehicles before.
And if countries are quietly stacking, that's new too.
But... cycles exist for a reason. Euphoria builds. Leverage piles up. Then everything crashes.
I think CZ might be right that crashes will be shallower (50% instead of 80%).
But cycles ending completely? That feels optimistic.
We'll see.
His $200K Bitcoin Take
The hosts tried to get CZ to make price predictions.
He mostly dodged.
"I don't do 3month, 6month calls. That's just noise."
But long-term?

He's sure Bitcoin hits $200,000.
"It's not IF. It's WHEN. 5-10 years."
Why He's So Confident
I wrote down his reasoning:
1. Math is simple.
21 million Bitcoin max. Demand keeps growing. Price has to go up.
2. We're still early.
"Institutions just started getting in. This isn't the middle. It's the beginning."
3. Fiat keeps failing.
"When national currencies collapse, people look for alternatives. Bitcoin is that."
He didn't give a timeline. But his conviction was clear.
$200K is coming. Just... eventually.

The AI + Crypto Idea That Blew My Mind
CZ's not just sitting around post-Binance.
He's building Giggle Academy (free education platform) and investing in AI + Crypto.
And he made a prediction that I can't stop thinking about:

AI Agents Will Use Crypto More Than Humans
Here's the thesis he laid out:
AI agents need money to operate.

To:
Pay for computing powerBuy dataHire servicesTransact with other AI agents
But they can't use traditional banks.

Why?
Can't open bank accounts (no KYC/identity)Can't pass verificationCan't hold credit cards
So what's the solution?
Crypto.
"AI agents need native digital currency. They CAN'T use banks. Crypto is their only option."
Why This Actually Makes Sense
Think about it:
If millions of AI agents are operating globally, all needing to transact, they can't exactly walk into a Chase branch and open an account.
They need:
Digital wallets (check)Instant transactions (check)No permission required (check)
That's crypto.
What This Means
If CZ's right, crypto adoption won't be about convincing people.
It'll be about AI agents using it by default because they have no other choice.
That's infrastructure-level demand.
Not speculative. Not optional.
Required.
"We won't need to sell people on crypto. AI will just use it," he said.
I'm still processing this one. But it makes way more sense than I expected.
His Brutal Take on Meme Coins

The hosts brought up meme coins.
CZ didn't sugarcoat it.
"90% of them will fail."
Why Most Will Die
"Most have no utility. No culture. No real community. Just speculation."
He said only the ones with actual cultural staying power survive.
Example: $DOGE coin.
"Doge has been around for years. Real community. Cultural value. That's not going away."
But the random dog coin from last week?
"Gone in 6 months."
What I Took From This
If you're holding meme coins, ask yourself:
Will people care about this in 2 years?Does it have real community beyond just pumping?Or is it pure hype?

If it's just hype, he's saying: take profits now.
I appreciated the honesty. No shilling. Just reality.
Regulation: The Fragmented Mess
CZ was asked about the state of crypto regulation globally.
His take: It's a mess. And it's getting worse.

The problem:
Every country has different rules.
What's legal in the U.S. is illegal in China.

What's allowed in Europe is banned in India.

What flies in Dubai gets you arrested in Nigeria.
The result?
Crypto companies are drowning in compliance costs.
"You need a different legal team for every jurisdiction. It's unsustainable."

The solution?
CZ advocates for "Regulatory Passporting" similar to the EU's MiCA framework.
"If you get licensed in one region, it should apply across multiple countries. Like the EU passport system."

Will it happen?
"It's the only realistic path forward. Otherwise, only giant companies can afford compliance. That kills innovation."

Binance's Future: Survival Over Growth
CZ stepped down as Binance CEO as part of the DOJ settlement.
New leadership. New structure. New phase.
What's Binance's strategy now?
"Survival over growth."

CZ was candid:
"The hyper-growth days are over. Now it's about compliance, stability, and surviving long-term."

Binance is transitioning from a "move fast and break things" startup to a traditional corporate structure.
Why?
Because global regulators demand it.

Does CZ support this?
Yes.

"Binance needs to mature. That means slower growth, but more stability. I'm okay with that."
He genuinely seems relieved to not be dealing with it anymore.
ETFs: The "Floor" That Changed Everything
One of CZ's most important points:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are preventing the 80% crashes of the past.

How?

"ETFs provide a floor. When price drops, institutions BUY. They don't panic sell like retail."

Historical crashes:
2018: -85% (from $20K to $3K)2022: -78% (from $69K to $15.5K)
Current crash:
2026: -46% (from $126K to $67K... so far)
The difference?
#ETFs .
"Institutions see $70K Bitcoin and think 'discount.' Retail sees it and thinks 'it's going to zero.'"
That behavioral difference creates a price floor.
The implication:
Bear markets might be shallower going forward.
Not 80% crashes. Maybe 50-60% max.

But they might also last longer.
Instead of a quick capitulation wick, we get a slow grind down as institutions accumulate.

What I'm Taking Away From All This
After listening to the full 90 minutes, here's what stuck with me:
1. The 2026 Supercycle Idea
CZ thinks the traditional 4-year cycle might break because:
ETFs provide a floorCountries are buyingRetail hasn't peaked yet
My take: Possible. But I'm not betting my whole portfolio on it. Cycles have a way of reasserting themselves.

2. Bitcoin to $200K
He's certain. "When, not if." 5-10 years.
My take: Seems reasonable long-term. Just don't expect it next month.
3. AI Agents + Crypto
AI needs crypto because they can't use banks.
My take: This is the idea I can't stop thinking about. If it plays out, it's a game-changer.
4. 90% of Meme Coins Die
Only ones with real culture survive.
My take: He's right. History will prove it.
5. ETFs Changed Everything
They prevent 80% crashes.
My take: Already seeing it. Current crash is 46%, not 80%.
6. He's Happier Now
"Grateful I don't run Binance anymore."
My take: Money isn't everything. Mental peace matters.
My Bottom Line
Honestly? This was one of the most refreshing crypto interviews I've heard in a while.
No hype. No shilling. Just a guy who's been through hell and come out with clarity.

His message:
Crypto's future is bright (institutions, AI, adoption)But it won't be a straight lineMost garbage will die (meme coins)Bitcoin will hit $200K eventually2026 might surprise us
Whether you agree or not, CZ's thought deeply about where this is all going.

And I think his insights are worth paying attention to.

If you listened to the podcast too what did you pick up?
Do you buy the supercycle thesis? And what about the AI + crypto idea? Let me know what you think.

You're asking the wrong question.
"Is the four-year cycle early or late?" That's retail thinking. That's trying to predict the weather instead of reading the wind.
Here's what actually happened yesterday:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $167 million .ARKB led with $68.5M. FBTC added $56.9M. Even IBIT—yes, BlackRock's IBIT—quietly pulled in $26.5M .This is now three consecutive days of inflows. That hasn't happened since January .Total cumulative ETF inflows just crossed $55 billion .
And here's the part nobody is screaming from the rooftops:
Bitcoin is down 40%+ from its all-time high. Yet ETF holders have only sold 6% of their total position .

Let that sink in.
The "Goldman Is Dumping" Narrative is a Trap
I know you saw the headlines. "Goldman cuts Bitcoin ETF exposure by 39%." Scary, right?
Here's what they're not telling you:
That cut happened in Q4 2025. You know, when Bitcoin was trading between $88k and $114k . They took profits. That's what smart money does.
But here's the part the fear-porn articles buried:
Goldman's total crypto portfolio is now $2.36 BILLION—up 15% from the previous quarter .

Let me repeat that: They reduced Bitcoin exposure by 39%... yet their TOTAL crypto holdings INCREASED.
Where did the money go?
First-time XRP ETF position: $152 million First-time Solana ETF position: $108 million Ethereum: Still holding ~$1 billion 
This isn't "de-risking." This is portfolio rebalancing. This is a $2.36 trillion asset manager telling you they believe in the asset class so deeply that they're rotating into new verticals while taking profits on winners.
That's not bearish. That's professional.
The Data That Destroys the "Cycle Is Dead" Panic
Let's look at what ETF holders have actually done during this "catastrophic" 40%+ drawdown:
MetricValueWhat It Tells YouETF holdings at peak (Oct)~1.37M BTCATH, euphoria, everyone feeling like geniusesETF holdings today~1.29M BTCOnly 6% sold Peak IBIT AUM~$100BMainstream adoption at scaleCurrent IBIT AUM~$60BDown 40%... yet still the fastest ETF to EVER hit $60B 
Eric Balchunas, who literally wrote the book on ETFs, said something that should be framed on every trader's wall:
"For now, the ETF boomers have really come through." 
These aren't degens checking charts every 5 minutes. These are 401(k) allocators who treat Bitcoin as 1-2% "hot sauce" in a diversified portfolio. When stocks are up 15% elsewhere, they don't panic-sell their crypto allocation at a loss .
This is why the four-year cycle is breaking. Not because "crypto is dead." Because crypto grew up.
The Volatility Reality Check
Balchunas admitted he got something wrong. He thought ETF adoption would dampen volatility .
He was wrong.
Why? Two factors he didn't fully price in:
1. The OG Supply Overhang
Early adopters—people who bought Bitcoin at $200, $1,000, $10,000—are taking profits at these levels. That's not "selling the bottom." That's generational wealth transfer. And it creates real selling pressure that ETFs can't instantly absorb .
2. 450% in Two Years
Bitcoin ran from ~$25k to ~$126k in 24 months. That's obscene. Even institutional investors need breathers. The fact that we're only down 40% after a 5x move is actually a sign of strength, not weakness .
Balchunas' conclusion: "Volatility is the cost of the returns." 
If you can't handle 40% drawdowns, you don't deserve 500% upswings. That's not crypto—that's math.
The Real Trade: Institutional Sticky Floor
Here's what the data actually says about where we are:
The 200 EMA is at $68,319. We're kissing it right now .
The RSI is 28.46. That's deeply oversold. Has been for days .
ETF holders are sitting on their hands. 94% retention through a 40%+ crash .
This is not the behavior of a market that believes the cycle is over. This is the behavior of a market that believes $60k-$70k is the new institutional accumulation zone.
Think about it:
Goldman is rotating, not exiting.ETF flows just flipped positive for three straight days.The "weak hands" narrative is being applied to the wrong cohort. The weak hands were the 6% who sold. The strong hands are the 94% who held.
The Bottom Line: Stop Trying to Date the Cycle and Start Reading the Flows
The four-year cycle model assumed a specific type of market: retail-dominated, halving-obsessed, all-or-nothing.
That market doesn't exist anymore.
The 2026 market is:
Institutionally dominated: $55B in ETF inflows, 6.39% of total Bitcoin supply now in ETFs Macro-sensitive: Reacting to Fed policy, not just block rewardsStructurally sticky: 94% retention through a 40% crash is unprecedented in crypto history
Your job isn't to predict whether the bottom is in. Your job is to watch what capital is actually doing.
Capital is flowing back into Bitcoin ETFs while retail screams about cycles and halvings.
Capital is rotating into XRP and Solana ETFs because institutions are building diversified crypto books, not flipping coins.
Capital is holding through a 40% drawdown because $1.5 trillion asset managers don't trade on hourly candles.
The four-year cycle isn't "dead" or "early." It's irrelevant. We're playing a different game now—one where the rules are written by ETF flows, 13F filings, and the spread between the 50 and 200 EMA.
BTC TRADE
So here's your assignment:
Stop asking "When moon?"
Start asking "What are ETF flows doing?"
Stop asking "Is the bottom in?"
Start asking "Is the 200 EMA holding?"
Stop asking "Is Goldman bearish?"
Start asking "Where is Goldman rotating TO?"
The answers are in the data. Not the dogma.

⬇️ Are you still trading the 4-year cycle, or have you accepted that the ETF era rewrote the playbook?

💬 I want to hear from the ones who held through $60k. What made you stay?

$NIL $ZRO
#BTC #ETFs #InstitutionalCrypto #GoldManSachs #NotFinancialadvice