Your setup on Tellor ($TRB ) makes technical sense if price fails to reclaim the $17 resistance zone. Here’s a quick breakdown of the current structure and what to watch before shorting. 📉

🔎 Market Structure

Current Price: ~$16.06

Key Resistance: $16.80 – $17.20

Trend (short-term): Weak consolidation after rejection attempts

Liquidity: Stops likely stacked above $17.20–$17.50

If buyers cannot break and hold above $17, this area can act as a supply zone, triggering a downside move.

📊 Your Short Setup (Refined)

Entry:

$16.00 – $16.90 (best entries on rejection wicks)

Stop Loss:

$17.50 (above liquidity sweep)

Targets:

🎯 $15.50 — first support / quick scalp

🎯 $15.00 — local structure support

🎯 $14.70 — previous demand zone

🎯 $13.00 — major breakdown target

⚠️ Invalidation

The short idea weakens if:

Price breaks and holds above $17.20–$17.50

Volume spikes with strong bullish candles

That scenario could trigger a short squeeze toward $18.50+.

📉 Probability Scenarios

Bearish rejection at $17: ~60% chance of pullback to $15 area

Breakout above $17.50: momentum continuation likely

✅ Best entry confirmation:

Wait for a rejection candle or lower high on 5m/15m timeframe near resistance instead of blindly shorting.

If you want, I can also show you:

• The strongest TRB liquidation levels (where big moves usually start)

• A higher-probability entry zone many traders miss for this trade. 🚀