Your setup on Tellor ($TRB ) makes technical sense if price fails to reclaim the $17 resistance zone. Here’s a quick breakdown of the current structure and what to watch before shorting. 📉
🔎 Market Structure
Current Price: ~$16.06
Key Resistance: $16.80 – $17.20
Trend (short-term): Weak consolidation after rejection attempts
Liquidity: Stops likely stacked above $17.20–$17.50
If buyers cannot break and hold above $17, this area can act as a supply zone, triggering a downside move.
📊 Your Short Setup (Refined)
Entry:
$16.00 – $16.90 (best entries on rejection wicks)
Stop Loss:
$17.50 (above liquidity sweep)
Targets:
🎯 $15.50 — first support / quick scalp
🎯 $15.00 — local structure support
🎯 $14.70 — previous demand zone
🎯 $13.00 — major breakdown target
⚠️ Invalidation
The short idea weakens if:
Price breaks and holds above $17.20–$17.50
Volume spikes with strong bullish candles
That scenario could trigger a short squeeze toward $18.50+.
📉 Probability Scenarios
Bearish rejection at $17: ~60% chance of pullback to $15 area
Breakout above $17.50: momentum continuation likely
✅ Best entry confirmation:
Wait for a rejection candle or lower high on 5m/15m timeframe near resistance instead of blindly shorting.
If you want, I can also show you:
• The strongest TRB liquidation levels (where big moves usually start)
• A higher-probability entry zone many traders miss for this trade. 🚀