March is shaping up to be a period of intense volatility, and I believe the bulls will ultimately take charge after the necessary corrections.
We have several critical milestones to watch in early March:
The Clarity Act deadline.
Decisive developments regarding the Iran conflict.
An expected uptick in the ISM print.
The start of a new lunar cycle.
I am currently holding a long position from $65,500 with very tight stop-losses. I see a high probability of Bitcoin breaking out of its current consolidation range in early March. The lower levels on the chart will be crucial areas to monitor.
There is a distinct possibility that an escalation in the Iran conflict could trigger a dip to $61,000, or even a 'sweep of the lows' to hunt for liquidity. Just as we've seen previously, Iranian escalations often mark the market bottom precisely when fear is at its peak, especially when aligning with the ISM data release.
Overall, the outlook for March remains skewed to the upside as the market structure continues to expand. This looks like a very solid bottoming formation. In a worst-case scenario, I anticipate a price wick down to the 200 EMA at $58,000.
Ultimately, Bitcoin will be driven higher by the rising tide of an expanding economy.
