Bitcoin’s key U.S. demand indicator has turned negative for a record 40 consecutive days, raising concerns about weakening American participation in the current market cycle. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the broader global average, last showed a positive reading on Jan. 15. Since then, it has remained below zero, signaling persistent softness in U.S.-based buying pressure.

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Despite bitcoin rebounding roughly 15% from its Feb. 5 intraday low and reclaiming levels above $62,000, the premium has failed to recover. This divergence suggests that the recent rally was largely fueled by demand outside U.S. trading hours or away from Coinbase’s institutional-heavy platform. In other words, while price action improved, American investors have not meaningfully re-entered the market.

The premium has narrowed from around -0.22% in early February to approximately -0.0467%, showing slight improvement. However, it remains below the positive threshold historically linked with sustained accumulation phases. A negative reading typically indicates that U.S. traders are either selling more aggressively than their global counterparts or simply staying on the sidelines.

The previous longest stretch of negative readings lasted about 30 days during the October 2025 downturn, ending when U.S. buyers stepped back in. This time, even with a strong price bounce, the premium has not flipped positive. The data suggests that the recovery in bitcoin’s price has not been matched by renewed confidence among American investors.