206,000 jobless claims. Lower than expected. Hooray right?

But continuing claims just rose to 1.869 million. People aren't finding jobs.

A softening labor market is exactly what forces the Fed's hand.

Bad jobs data = rate cuts = risk assets go up.

The question isn't if the Fed cuts. It's whether they're fast enough.

Slow deterioration = soft landing = bull case.

Sudden crack = panic cut = carnage first, recovery later.

Which one are we headed for? 👀