CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s “ultimate” bear-market bottom is likely near $55,000, based on its realized price metric, which has historically acted as a major support level in past cycles. The firm stresses that bear-market bottoms usually develop over several months of base-building rather than through a single sharp capitulation drop.

According to its onchain data, several key indicators have not yet reached the extreme levels normally associated with cycle lows. Daily realized losses have recently spiked, but cumulative realized losses remain well below prior bottom zones. Valuation metrics such as MVRV and NUPL have also not entered deeply undervalued territory, and long-term holders are mostly selling near breakeven instead of at the heavy losses seen in previous bottoms. In addition, a relatively large share of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, suggesting capitulation is incomplete.

CryptoQuant’s Bull–Bear Market Cycle Indicator also remains in a standard Bear phase rather than the Extreme Bear phase that historically marks the start of bottom formation. Separately, Standard Chartered recently lowered its near-term outlook, warning Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 before potentially rebounding later in the year.