Bitcoin is standing at a very important level right now. After dropping to a two-week low around $62,696, BTC made a small recovery and is trading near $63,376. But honestly, the bigger picture still looks a bit risky for bulls.
I was looking at the latest on-chain data, and according to Alphractal, the Reserve Risk indicators are starting to turn down again. Both the main Reserve Risk metric and the VOCDD/MVOCDD ratio are moving lower. This usually means long-term holders are losing confidence compared to price action.
In simple words — older coins are starting to move. And whenever that happens, it often means experienced investors are slowly taking profits.
What caught my attention is the pattern. Since 2024, these indicators have given four clear sell signals, and every time Bitcoin followed with a noticeable drop. That’s why some analysts are now watching the $60,000 support level very closely. If long-term holders increase their selling pressure, that level could be tested soon.
But it’s not all negative.
Short-term holders are currently at a loss because many of them bought at higher prices. Right now, they don’t seem interested in selling and locking in losses. The Short-Term Sell Side Risk Ratio has been declining throughout February, which shows reduced selling pressure from this group.
At the same time, smaller wallet holders are actually accumulating. Shrimp, Fish, and Crab wallets have added thousands of BTC during this dip. Balance increases of around 9.1k, 16k, and 6.2k BTC show that retail investors are stepping in.
So what we’re seeing is a battle: Long-term holders reducing exposure vs retail investors buying the dip.
This tug-of-war could prevent a deeper crash. If retail demand stays strong, Bitcoin could recover toward the $68k–$72k range before month end. But if history repeats itself and sell signals dominate, the $60k support will face real pressure.
For now, this is a key decision zone for
$BTC .
What do you think — bounce or breakdown? 👀
#BTC #CryptoMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BTCDropsBelow63K $BTC $BTC