1. Liquidity & Macro Conditions
• Tightening liquidity and risk-off trading (e.g., equities and gold) are dragging on risk assets like crypto, making $BTC and $ETH react more like broader financial markets. 
• Prediction markets signal substantial bearish probability on $BTC Bitcoin dropping toward $65K this year, underscoring elevated uncertainty. 
2. Regulatory & Geopolitical Factors
• U.S. policy shifts and regulatory actions continue to shape sentiment; unclear frameworks (like CLARITY Act delays) remain a key headwind. 
• Global geopolitical issues, including scrutiny of crypto use in sanctioned jurisdictions like Iran, add complexity to market flows and compliance risk. 
3. Retail vs Institutional Behavior
• Retail investors are actively engaging in “dip-buying”, which has cushioned deeper declines in recent drawdowns—but the sustainability of this behavior is uncertain. 
• Institutional infrastructure (spot ETFs, custody) has expanded since 2024, boosting crypto’s integration with traditional finance but also linking it more to broader risk-on/risk-off swings.
