Everyone is watching oil.
Everyone is watching the Middle East.
But the real risk might be somewhere else.
Private Credit.
A $3 trillion market that almost nobody in crypto is talking about.
And in just 6 weeks, the cracks are already showing:
• Blue Owl halted redemptions on a $273B credit fund
• UBS warns about cascading defaults and contagion
• Blackstone had to inject $400M and raise withdrawal limits
• BlackRock restricted withdrawals on a $26B fund
• JPMorgan started limiting lending to private credit groups
• Cliffwater ($33B) capped redemptions
• Morgan Stanley also restricted withdrawals
That’s not normal.
That’s liquidity stress.
And the timing couldn’t be worse:
Inflation expectations rising.
Energy risks building.
Layoffs increasing.
When the economy slows…
credit breaks first.
And if private credit starts cracking the way subprime did in 2008…
This won’t stay contained for long.
Markets aren’t paying attention yet.
But they will. 😬😬
