The $1M $BTC thesis doesn't require flipping gold. It just requires 17% of a market that's already growing on its own.

Here is the math Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan actually ran. Gold grew from $2.5 trillion in 2004 to $38 trillion today compounding at 13% annually. Project that same growth forward and the total store of value market hits $121 trillion within a decade. Bitcoin capturing just 17% of that expanded pie equals $1M per coin. Not half of gold. Not dominance. Just 17%. 👀

The infrastructure supporting that path is already being built. ETF inflows are moving Bitcoin deeper into institutional portfolios. Sovereign wealth funds are building exposure. The allocation shift is happening at the same time Bitcoin sits roughly 44% below its previous peak.

The store of value market is not a fixed size pie that Bitcoin has to steal from gold. It's an expanding market and Bitcoin is competing for a growing share of something much larger than what existed when this conversation started.

Understanding the difference between those two framings is what separates the long term thesis from the short term noise. 📊

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