Hougan's $1M call is getting picked up everywhere but most coverage is missing the actual point. This isn't a price prediction in the traditional sense — it's a market share argument. The global store-of-value market sits around $38T today, gold making up the bulk of it. Bitwise's CIO is essentially asking: what percentage of that does $BTC realistically absorb over the next decade or two?
Even a 10–15% capture rate at that scale rewrites the price entirely. What's interesting here is that he's not assuming crypto euphoria or a new cycle peak — he's using a relatively conservative assumption about institutional reallocation. Sovereign wealth funds, pension allocators, family offices slowly rotating a portion of gold exposure into BTC. That behavior is already happening at the edges.
The $1M figure is almost beside the point. The real question is whether the SoV market itself expands — and whether BTC's share grows with it or stalls.