Benchmark cuts COIN price target to $267, keeps buy rating

Mark Palmer of Benchmark lowered his price target for Coinbase shares to $267 from $421, citing worsening crypto market conditions, while reiterating a buy rating.

He reduced his full-year 2026 EPS estimate by 21% to $5.34, with first-half projections coming in well below Wall Street consensus. The revision followed Coinbase’s weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results, where both revenue and earnings missed estimates and the company posted a GAAP net loss due largely to unrealized crypto portfolio losses and strategic investment write-downs.

Despite the cuts, Palmer said the quarter showed a more diversified business mix. Institutional trading revenue rose sharply, supported by contributions from Deribit, while stablecoin revenue increased and average USDC balances reached a record high. Subscription and services revenue accounted for about 43% of net revenue in the quarter.

Management, led by CEO Brian Armstrong, highlighted derivatives, stablecoins, equities trading, and prediction markets as key growth drivers going forward. The company ended the year with $11.3 billion in cash and expanded its share buyback authorization.